Development of Large-Scale Ground-Mounted PV Spatial Development Predictive Model in New York State

Customer Profile: The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) strives to promote energy efficiency, renewable energy, and emissions reduction across New York’s economy and energy system.

Customer Challenge: NYSERDA sought out Stark Tech to create a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial development predictive model for large-scale ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV) projects in New York State. The aim was to better understand the key factors influencing site selection and the potential economic viability of PV installations under various future scenarios.

Stark Tech Solution: Stark Tech built the GIS to understand how key factors such as system scale, performance, construction costs, and market conditions will impact siting decisions. The MSACESS-based application was developed to combine a GIS screening analysis with a customized PV performance and economic model.

Utilized by NYSERDA, this tool assists NYS policymakers and local jurisdictions in understanding how large-scale PV development may occur in NYS under a variety of future scenarios. The Solar Siting Tool combines many activities that are critical for development of the model, such as:

  • Land Evaluation: Assessing NYS acreage for its technical potential for large-scale ground-mounted PV development, considering land classification and terrain on a parcel level.
  • Performance Estimation: Modeling PV system performance statewide for typical fixed-tilt configurations.
  • Economic Analysis: Incorporating geographic variability and project scale into a financial model that calculates total installed costs and annual expenses, including land lease rates.
  • Market Rate Analysis: Analyzing market rates for both wholesale and retail (value stack) pricing under various future scenarios, including Renewable Energy Credit (REC) pricing.

The result is a dynamic, interactive tool that allows users to adjust key inputs and explore different scenarios. Preloaded scenarios provide a framework for understanding state-level impacts under various economic and policy conditions.

Project Result: Stark Tech successfully delivered a state-wide solar screening map and interactive economic models to NYSERDA. These tools now enable NYSERDA to evaluate the potential for solar PV development under diverse economic and policy scenarios, providing critical insights to guide future energy strategies in New York State.

About Stark Tech

Stark Tech is a total optimization provider of clean energy equipment solutions supporting project developers, owners / operators, and Engineering, Procurement and Construction firms (EPCs). Our team provides engineering expertise, manufactures equipment, and offers turnkey implementation of renewable projects across North America.